How CS2 Trade-Ups Work: 10 Skins, Float & Profit

A CS2 trade-up contract converts ten skins of the same rarity into one skin of the next rarity tier. The output is selected by collection weighting and priced by its exact float value. A profitable contract therefore depends on four quantities, every one of which can be calculated before a single purchase is made: total input cost, the adjusted output float, the probability of each possible output, and the marketplace fees charged at sale.

To follow along with live data, browse current CS2 trade-up contracts or model your own configuration with the CS2 trade-up calculator.

10 inputs, same rarity

▶

1 output, next tier

The Core Mechanic

A trade-up accepts ten weapon skins of a single rarity tier and returns one skin of the tier above it. Mil-Spec inputs yield a Restricted output, Restricted inputs yield Classified, and the pattern continues up the chain. Knife and glove contracts are the only exception: they require five Covert skins and return an item from the matching case collection pool.

The defining constraint is that all ten inputs must share the same rarity, although they may come from different collections. The output is selected at random from the next-tier skins of every collection present among the inputs, weighted by how many inputs each collection contributes. A contract of seven Fracture Collection inputs and three Prisma Collection inputs has a 70% probability of a Fracture output and a 30% probability of a Prisma output. This proportional weighting is the foundation of expected value in every contract.

The Float Formula

The output float is the most commonly misunderstood part of a trade-up. It is not the average of the input floats. The governing formula is:

output_float = (avg_adjusted_float * (max_float - min_float)) + min_float

Here avg_adjusted_float is the mean of each input's adjusted float, defined as:

adjusted_float = (input_float - input_min_float) / (input_max_float - input_min_float)

The min_float and max_float terms describe the output skin's float range, not the inputs. Many skins span the full 0.00 to 1.00 range, but many do not. The AWP Asiimov runs from a minimum of 0.18 to a maximum of 1.00, while the Glock-18 Fade runs only from 0.00 to 0.08.

KEY CONSEQUENCE

One fixed set of inputs can produce very different output floats depending on which skin is received. Inputs that yield 0.04 on a standard skin can yield 0.21 on the Asiimov, shifting the result from Field-Tested into Battle-Scarred.

Why Condition Boundaries Matter

CS2 defines five wear conditions, each bounded by fixed float thresholds. The bands below are drawn to scale, which shows how much of the float range Field-Tested and Battle-Scarred actually occupy.

FN
0.00 to 0.07
MW
0.07 to 0.15
FT
0.15 to 0.38
WW
0.38 to 0.45
BS
0.45 to 1.00

A skin at float 0.0699 is Factory New, while a skin at 0.0701 is Minimal Wear. The visual difference is imperceptible, yet the price difference is frequently a factor of two to five, and sometimes larger. Sensitivity to these boundaries is the single most important principle in trade-up profitability.

Input selection is therefore the act of targeting a specific output float. A contract intended to produce a Factory New result needs an output float below 0.07, and the margin between 0.0695 and 0.0705 can separate a $200 output from a $50 one.

Collection Rules

An output skin must exist at the next rarity tier within the same collection as the input that produced it. If a collection has no skins at the next tier, its skins cannot be used in a contract. Each eligible collection contributes a share of the possible outcomes in proportion to its representation among the inputs.

This rule explains why collections vary so widely in trade-up value. A collection whose next-tier skins are uniformly valuable produces a favourable result regardless of which skin is received. A collection with one expensive skin among several cheap ones carries far more variance.

Fees Decide Marginal Contracts

Marketplace fees are charged at the point of sale and frequently determine whether a contract with a thin margin is profitable at all. The deliverable markets charge as follows:

Marketplace	Seller fee	Buyer fee
CSFloat	2%	None
DMarket	2%	2.5%
Skinport	8%	None

A contract with an expected margin of 5% can become a loss once an 8% seller fee is applied. Fees must be modelled explicitly, never assumed away.

Common Errors

ERROR 1

Using average market prices instead of real listing prices. Steam Community Market averages include outliers and rarely match what a buyer pays. A skin with an $8.50 average may have the required float listed at $12.

ERROR 2

Ignoring the output skin's float range. Running a calculation with generic floats and assuming a Factory New result, then receiving Minimal Wear because the output has a non-standard range, is a frequent and costly mistake.

ERROR 3

Assuming listings remain available. Marketplace listings are live inventory. In the time taken to calculate a contract, locate ten inputs, and execute the purchases, some listings sell. Verify immediately before buying.

Conclusion

The float calculation in a trade-up is fully deterministic. Given the exact float values of the inputs and the float range of the output skin, the output float can be computed precisely before any commitment. The only randomness is which output skin is received when several collections are involved. Consistently profitable contracts come from a disciplined grasp of this mathematics and from selecting inputs whose expected value exceeds their total cost.

Published 2026-03-15 by CSAlpha Team.