Restricted Trade-Up — $167.98 Profit (9.1% ROI)
Cost $1849.87 · 30% chance to profit · Restricted rarity tier. Built from inputs from The 2021 Train Collection, The Rising Sun Collection, The 2021 Dust 2 Collection, The Operation Broken Fang Collection, The Chroma 2 Collection, The Chroma 3 Collection, The Snakebite Collection, The Chroma Collection. Data sourced from real listings on CSFloat, DMarket, and Skinport.
Inputs
This trade-up contract uses 10 input skins of the same rarity. The 10 inputs are:
- Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New) — The 2021 Train Collection — $38.90
- Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) — The Rising Sun Collection — $541.00
- Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Factory New) — The Rising Sun Collection — $546.48
- Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Factory New) — The Rising Sun Collection — $576.28
- MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Factory New) — The 2021 Dust 2 Collection — $59.00
- SSG 08 | Parallax (Factory New) — The Operation Broken Fang Collection — $24.11
- CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Factory New) — The Chroma 2 Collection — $14.83
- CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New) — The Chroma 3 Collection — $14.56
- MAC-10 | Button Masher (Factory New) — The Snakebite Collection — $13.71
- Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Factory New) — The Chroma Collection — $21.00
Outputs
The output skin is randomly selected from the next rarity tier in the matching collections, weighted proportionally by input count per collection. Possible outputs:
- AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New) — 3% chance — est. $75.64
- M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) — 3% chance — est. $89.27
- P250 | Muertos (Factory New) — 3% chance — est. $41.96
- AUG | Fleet Flock (Factory New) — 3% chance — est. $50.75
- P250 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) — 3% chance — est. $45.39
- UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New) — 3% chance — est. $26.23
- Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) — 3% chance — est. $41.17
- MP9 | Food Chain (Factory New) — 3% chance — est. $36.01
- XM1014 | XOXO (Factory New) — 3% chance — est. $31.38
- AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New) — 30% chance — est. $6372.46
- FAMAS | Meltdown (Factory New) — 3% chance — est. $127.36
- MAC-10 | Propaganda (Factory New) — 3% chance — est. $147.00
- USP-S | Whiteout (Factory New) — 3% chance — est. $569.56
- Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New) — 3% chance — est. $336.70
- M4A4 | Cyber Security (Factory New) — 3% chance — est. $212.74
- USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New) — 3% chance — est. $114.76
- SSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New) — 5% chance — est. $427.05
- UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New) — 5% chance — est. $234.22
- FAMAS | Djinn (Factory New) — 3% chance — est. $85.77
- Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Minimal Wear) — 3% chance — est. $42.24
- Galil AR | Eco (Minimal Wear) — 3% chance — est. $117.64
Mechanics
In CS2, a trade-up contract accepts exactly 10 weapon skins of the same rarity and produces 1 skin of the next higher rarity. The output skin's float value is determined by the adjusted float formula: the average float of all 10 inputs is mapped into the output skin's condition range, producing a predictable wear result.
The output condition depends on where the average input float falls relative to the output skin's min and max float values. Lower-float inputs (closer to 0) tend to produce Factory New or Minimal Wear outputs; higher-float inputs (above 0.45) push toward Field-Tested, Well-Worn, or Battle-Scarred.
Profitability depends on three factors: (1) the cost of 10 inputs at current marketplace prices, (2) the expected value of the output distribution weighted by each skin's market price, and (3) the marketplace fees applied on both the buy and sell sides. This trade-up was calculated using live listing prices with all fees included.