Classified Trade-Up — $1.80 Profit (0.2% ROI)
Cost $939.82 · 40% chance to profit · Classified rarity tier. Built from inputs from The Dreams & Nightmares Collection, The Ancient Collection, The 2021 Dust 2 Collection, The eSports 2014 Summer Collection, The Chroma 3 Collection. Data sourced from real listings on CSFloat, DMarket, and Skinport.
Inputs
This trade-up contract uses 10 input skins of the same rarity. The 10 inputs are:
- MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Factory New) — The Dreams & Nightmares Collection — $26.49
- MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Factory New) — The Dreams & Nightmares Collection — $26.48
- P90 | Run and Hide (Minimal Wear) — The Ancient Collection — $150.94
- P90 | Run and Hide (Minimal Wear) — The Ancient Collection — $140.67
- P90 | Run and Hide (Minimal Wear) — The Ancient Collection — $147.00
- UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New) — The 2021 Dust 2 Collection — $250.00
- Nova | Bloomstick (Minimal Wear) — The eSports 2014 Summer Collection — $42.59
- Nova | Bloomstick (Minimal Wear) — The eSports 2014 Summer Collection — $49.60
- Nova | Bloomstick (Minimal Wear) — The eSports 2014 Summer Collection — $54.05
- P250 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) — The Chroma 3 Collection — $52.00
Outputs
The output skin is randomly selected from the next rarity tier in the matching collections, weighted proportionally by input count per collection. Possible outputs:
- AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) — 10% chance — est. $2191.32
- M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) — 30% chance — est. $1886.50
- PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) — 5% chance — est. $176.40
- M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New) — 5% chance — est. $264.94
- AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New) — 15% chance — est. $495.69
- M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) — 15% chance — est. $262.11
- AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New) — 10% chance — est. $113.95
- MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) — 10% chance — est. $94.08
Mechanics
In CS2, a trade-up contract accepts exactly 10 weapon skins of the same rarity and produces 1 skin of the next higher rarity. The output skin's float value is determined by the adjusted float formula: the average float of all 10 inputs is mapped into the output skin's condition range, producing a predictable wear result.
The output condition depends on where the average input float falls relative to the output skin's min and max float values. Lower-float inputs (closer to 0) tend to produce Factory New or Minimal Wear outputs; higher-float inputs (above 0.45) push toward Field-Tested, Well-Worn, or Battle-Scarred.
Profitability depends on three factors: (1) the cost of 10 inputs at current marketplace prices, (2) the expected value of the output distribution weighted by each skin's market price, and (3) the marketplace fees applied on both the buy and sell sides. This trade-up was calculated using live listing prices with all fees included.