Mil-Spec Trade-Up — $1.48 Profit (12.8% ROI)
Cost $11.53 · 10% chance to profit · Mil-Spec rarity tier. Built from inputs from The Cache Collection, The Dreams & Nightmares Collection, The Lake Collection, The Kilowatt Collection, The Recoil Collection, The Revolution Collection, The Clutch Collection, The Safehouse Collection, The Fracture Collection. Data sourced from real listings on CSFloat, DMarket, and Skinport.
Inputs
This trade-up contract uses 10 input skins of the same rarity. The 10 inputs are:
- XM1014 | Bone Machine (Well-Worn) — The Cache Collection — $5.57
- SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) — The Dreams & Nightmares Collection — $0.50
- P90 | Teardown (Factory New) — The Lake Collection — $0.51
- Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New) — The Kilowatt Collection — $0.66
- FAMAS | Meow 36 (Factory New) — The Recoil Collection — $0.67
- MP5-SD | Liquidation (Factory New) — The Revolution Collection — $0.68
- SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New) — The Clutch Collection — $0.70
- FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New) — The Safehouse Collection — $0.72
- P250 | Re.built (Factory New) — The Revolution Collection — $0.73
- P2000 | Gnarled (Factory New) — The Fracture Collection — $0.79
Outputs
The output skin is randomly selected from the next rarity tier in the matching collections, weighted proportionally by input count per collection. Possible outputs:
- M4A1-S | Nitro (Minimal Wear) — 10% chance — est. $0.88
- Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear) — 2% chance — est. $0.77
- M249 | Downtown (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $1.20
- P90 | Vent Rush (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $1.23
- R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear) — 2% chance — est. $0.73
- SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $1.20
- Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $2.18
- MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Minimal Wear) — 2% chance — est. $0.72
- Negev | Lionfish (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $1.96
- Nova | Wild Six (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $1.22
- UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $1.37
- PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $1.11
- G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) — 2% chance — est. $0.71
- M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $1.29
- USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $1.55
- XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $1.41
- FAMAS | Styx (Factory New) — 5% chance — est. $131.48
- Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New) — 5% chance — est. $109.92
- Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New) — 4% chance — est. $1.25
- M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) — 4% chance — est. $1.78
- MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) — 4% chance — est. $0.59
- P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New) — 4% chance — est. $1.55
- R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) — 4% chance — est. $0.58
- Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $1.56
- MAC-10 | Allure (Minimal Wear) — 2% chance — est. $1.02
- MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear) — 2% chance — est. $0.72
- MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $1.29
- Tec-9 | Brother (Minimal Wear) — 2% chance — est. $0.57
- Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Factory New) — 10% chance — est. $0.59
- Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear) — 2% chance — est. $0.59
- Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $1.23
- M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) — 2% chance — est. $0.69
- MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear) — 2% chance — est. $0.67
- Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $0.98
Mechanics
In CS2, a trade-up contract accepts exactly 10 weapon skins of the same rarity and produces 1 skin of the next higher rarity. The output skin's float value is determined by the adjusted float formula: the average float of all 10 inputs is mapped into the output skin's condition range, producing a predictable wear result.
The output condition depends on where the average input float falls relative to the output skin's min and max float values. Lower-float inputs (closer to 0) tend to produce Factory New or Minimal Wear outputs; higher-float inputs (above 0.45) push toward Field-Tested, Well-Worn, or Battle-Scarred.
Profitability depends on three factors: (1) the cost of 10 inputs at current marketplace prices, (2) the expected value of the output distribution weighted by each skin's market price, and (3) the marketplace fees applied on both the buy and sell sides. This trade-up was calculated using live listing prices with all fees included.