milspec_restricted_st Trade-Up — $1.24 Profit (14.1% ROI)
Cost $8.77 · 48% chance to profit · milspec_restricted_st rarity tier. Built from inputs from The Gallery Collection, The Recoil Collection, The Dreams & Nightmares Collection, The Revolution Collection, The Clutch Collection. Data sourced from real listings on CSFloat, DMarket, and Skinport.
Inputs
This trade-up contract uses 10 input skins of the same rarity. The 10 inputs are:
- USP-S | 27 (Minimal Wear) — The Gallery Collection — $0.93
- AUG | Luxe Trim (Minimal Wear) — The Gallery Collection — $0.97
- M249 | Hypnosis (Minimal Wear) — The Gallery Collection — $1.00
- USP-S | 27 (Minimal Wear) — The Gallery Collection — $1.08
- Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti (Minimal Wear) — The Gallery Collection — $1.41
- M249 | Hypnosis (Factory New) — The Gallery Collection — $2.00
- MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Minimal Wear) — The Recoil Collection — $0.23
- P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear) — The Dreams & Nightmares Collection — $0.25
- Tec-9 | Rebel (Minimal Wear) — The Revolution Collection — $0.29
- XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) — The Clutch Collection — $0.61
Outputs
The output skin is randomly selected from the next rarity tier in the matching collections, weighted proportionally by input count per collection. Possible outputs:
- Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear) — 2% chance — est. $2.51
- M249 | Downtown (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $2.21
- P90 | Vent Rush (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $2.13
- R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear) — 2% chance — est. $2.01
- SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $2.93
- PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $1.59
- G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) — 2% chance — est. $0.99
- M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $4.47
- USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $5.62
- XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $1.82
- Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $6.52
- MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Minimal Wear) — 2% chance — est. $2.88
- Negev | Lionfish (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $3.58
- Nova | Wild Six (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $2.84
- UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $3.35
- Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $4.23
- M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $5.89
- MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) — 2% chance — est. $1.71
- P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $1.65
- R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) — 2% chance — est. $1.32
- Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Factory New) — 12% chance — est. $11.02
- M4A4 | Turbine (Factory New) — 12% chance — est. $23.02
- MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Factory New) — 12% chance — est. $11.30
- P90 | Randy Rush (Factory New) — 12% chance — est. $6.29
- SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Factory New) — 12% chance — est. $21.77
Mechanics
In CS2, a trade-up contract accepts exactly 10 weapon skins of the same rarity and produces 1 skin of the next higher rarity. The output skin's float value is determined by the adjusted float formula: the average float of all 10 inputs is mapped into the output skin's condition range, producing a predictable wear result.
The output condition depends on where the average input float falls relative to the output skin's min and max float values. Lower-float inputs (closer to 0) tend to produce Factory New or Minimal Wear outputs; higher-float inputs (above 0.45) push toward Field-Tested, Well-Worn, or Battle-Scarred.
Profitability depends on three factors: (1) the cost of 10 inputs at current marketplace prices, (2) the expected value of the output distribution weighted by each skin's market price, and (3) the marketplace fees applied on both the buy and sell sides. This trade-up was calculated using live listing prices with all fees included.