Mil-Spec Trade-Up — $2.94 Profit (28.5% ROI)
Cost $10.32 · 10% chance to profit · Mil-Spec rarity tier. Built from inputs from The Overpass Collection, The Dreams & Nightmares Collection, The Fracture Collection, The Recoil Collection, The Kilowatt Collection, The Italy Collection, The Revolution Collection. Data sourced from real listings on CSFloat, DMarket, and Skinport.
Inputs
This trade-up contract uses 10 input skins of the same rarity. The 10 inputs are:
- XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) — The Overpass Collection — $2.70
- MAG-7 | Foresight (Factory New) — The Dreams & Nightmares Collection — $0.34
- SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) — The Fracture Collection — $0.38
- Negev | Ultralight (Factory New) — The Fracture Collection — $0.71
- Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) — The Recoil Collection — $0.80
- SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) — The Dreams & Nightmares Collection — $0.85
- XM1014 | Irezumi (Factory New) — The Kilowatt Collection — $0.95
- Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) — The Italy Collection — $0.96
- XM1014 | Irezumi (Factory New) — The Kilowatt Collection — $1.15
- MAG-7 | Insomnia (Factory New) — The Revolution Collection — $1.48
Outputs
The output skin is randomly selected from the next rarity tier in the matching collections, weighted proportionally by input count per collection. Possible outputs:
- Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $4.79
- M249 | Downtown (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $2.91
- P90 | Vent Rush (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $2.50
- R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $4.37
- SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $1.75
- AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) — 10% chance — est. $1.48
- Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $2.89
- M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $2.95
- MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) — 2% chance — est. $0.76
- P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $1.29
- R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New) — 2% chance — est. $4.00
- Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New) — 4% chance — est. $4.30
- Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New) — 4% chance — est. $2.11
- M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New) — 4% chance — est. $7.43
- MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New) — 4% chance — est. $3.64
- Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New) — 4% chance — est. $1.26
- PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New) — 4% chance — est. $1.58
- G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New) — 4% chance — est. $3.76
- M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New) — 4% chance — est. $2.41
- USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New) — 4% chance — est. $3.61
- XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New) — 4% chance — est. $1.26
- AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) — 5% chance — est. $47.52
- USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) — 5% chance — est. $159.09
- Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New) — 4% chance — est. $4.71
- MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New) — 4% chance — est. $4.24
- MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New) — 4% chance — est. $3.80
- MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New) — 4% chance — est. $3.62
- Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New) — 4% chance — est. $7.65
Mechanics
In CS2, a trade-up contract accepts exactly 10 weapon skins of the same rarity and produces 1 skin of the next higher rarity. The output skin's float value is determined by the adjusted float formula: the average float of all 10 inputs is mapped into the output skin's condition range, producing a predictable wear result.
The output condition depends on where the average input float falls relative to the output skin's min and max float values. Lower-float inputs (closer to 0) tend to produce Factory New or Minimal Wear outputs; higher-float inputs (above 0.45) push toward Field-Tested, Well-Worn, or Battle-Scarred.
Profitability depends on three factors: (1) the cost of 10 inputs at current marketplace prices, (2) the expected value of the output distribution weighted by each skin's market price, and (3) the marketplace fees applied on both the buy and sell sides. This trade-up was calculated using live listing prices with all fees included.