Trade-up playbook
Trade-ups reward the patient and punish the hopeful. This is the field guide: how a contract actually works, how to read every number on the board, what each filter does, and how to spot the deals that only look good. No fluff — just what moves real profit.
Ten skins of the same rarity go in. One skin of the next rarity up comes out. The output's float is the average of your ten inputs — control the inputs, control the result.
10 inputs
same rarity tier
average
float
1 output
next rarity up
The collection your inputs come from decides which outputs are possible. A cheaper average float can push the output into a higher wear bracket worth more money. The whole game is buying ten cheap, well-chosen inputs that average into an output worth more than you paid — after fees.
Every row is one contract. Here's a typical one, with each number that matters called out. Match the marker to the legend below.
Output / cost 1
Expected ROI 2
Best / worst 3
Chance to profit 4
Output float 5
Filters compose — stack a sort with as many toggles as you like. NPV/IRR, Depth, Budget, Verified and the per-row risk badge are free for everyone. The curation levers below are Pro/Elite.
NPV ranks by total profit you could pull (throughput). IRR ranks by efficiency — profit per dollar, per cycle. Add Depth weighting to favour contracts with enough listings to actually fill.
Set what you can spend. The board re-ranks by total profit you can fund with that budget and hides contracts you can't afford to fill.
Rank by risk-adjusted return (expected profit ÷ max loss) and filter by max-loss band: low ≤ $25, med ≤ $150, high > $150. The per-row risk badge is free; the ranking is paid.
Keep only contracts whose output sells fast (typically under ~1h). A filter, not a sort — it stacks with any ranking, e.g. Liquid + highest ROI together.
One more paid lever isn't a filter at all: board freshness. Free sees the board on a 2-hour delay, Pro at 30 minutes, Elite in real time. Every NPV / IRR / depth / budget number is free for all — delay and the curation toggles are the only paid edges.
Same board, opposite outcomes. The difference is rarely the headline ROI — it's everything around it.
The dangerous trade-ups aren't the obviously bad ones — they're the ones with a gorgeous ROI and a hidden flaw. Learn the six that catch people.
One troll listing on a single market drags the output's "value" to absurd heights, so a $12 skin shows a $5,000 jackpot. The price isn't real — nobody's paying it.
Tell: ROI looks impossible. Cross-check the output on a second market before trusting it.
The output is genuinely worth a lot — but it's extremely illiquid. You can win it and still wait weeks for a buyer, often having to undercut to move it.
Tell: no Liquid badge / slow est. sale time. Paper profit ≠ cash.
The jackpot output spiked on a volume surge. Trade-up math uses today's inflated price, but by the time you sell it has mean-reverted and the edge is gone.
Tell: Overbought badge / steep recent run-up. Discount the output before you trust the EV.
The price is real for one listing. You need ten inputs — buying them moves the book, so your true cost is higher than the headline and the margin shrinks.
Tell: low depth. Turn on Depth weighting; treat single-listing prices with suspicion.
A fat ROI percentage on a tiny contract is still tiny in dollars. 80% on a $4 input is $3.20 — before marketplace fees and the hour you spent.
Tell: check absolute profit, not just %. Use the Budget filter to size for real money.
Output float is an average of your ten inputs. Misjudge the inputs' floats and the result lands in a worse wear — Field-Tested instead of the Minimal Wear you priced.
Tell: trust the float model's predicted condition, not the best-case wear.
The math is free for everyone. You pay for speed and curation — fresher boards and the levers that filter the noise.
| Capability | Free | Pro $15 | Elite $25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Board delay | 2 hours | 30 min | real-time |
| NPV / IRR / Depth / Budget | YES | YES | YES |
| Verified-only filter | YES | YES | YES |
| Per-row risk badge | YES | YES | YES |
| Risk-ranked board | NO | YES | YES |
| Liquid filter | NO | YES | YES |
| Overbought badge | NO | YES | YES |
| Personal Discord alert bot (your own filters) | NO | NO | YES |
A profitable contract is public the instant it's real — and the margin is thin. Speed isn't a luxury here; it's the difference between catching the edge and reading its obituary.
FREE
You see contracts that were live two hours ago. The good ones are already picked over.
PRO
Far warmer — but the sharpest, cheapest fills can still be gone before you load.
ELITE
You see every contract the instant the engine computes it — first in line for the inputs.
Trade-up profit lives in cheap inputs, and cheap inputs don't last. The moment a contract is worth doing, other traders are buying the same ten skins — the listings that made the math work get bought out, and the contract's edge evaporates or the price re-rates within minutes. A delayed board hands you opportunities the market has already absorbed: the row still shows +60%, but by the time you go to buy, the floor listings are gone and the real return is a fraction of that — or negative.
Real-time flips it. You act on a live edge, not a stale one — buying the inputs while they're still cheap, before the crowd, and skipping the contracts whose prices just moved against you. On a market where minutes decide who captures the margin, seeing it first is the advantage. That's the whole case for Elite.